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1 MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM MEDCOF 5 MEETING MONITORING SUMMARY FOR MEDCOF 5 Draft version Last update 23 November 2015 Compiled by WMO RA I North Africa

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519 5 q ADSL

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A strong and mature El Ni o continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean The majority of international climate outlook models indicate that the 2015 16 El Ni o will strengthen slightly before

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Seasonal forecast from System 4 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

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MedCOF Training Workshop on Veri caon of Operaonal Seasonal Forecasts in the Mediterranean region 15 18 November 2016

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The second point is notably related to the question of the distribution of the score pdf and its confidence interval under the hypothesis that there is a forecasting information potentially good

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The Fifth Session of MedCOF MedCOF 5 has taken place in Marrakech Morocco on 23 26 November 2015 kindly hosted by the Direction de la Meteorologie National of Morroco

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MedCOF 19 comprises 3 steps The first one is devoted to verification of the MedCOF 18 summer forecast the second one to the assessment of current state of climate and finally the