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Using quarterly US data spanning the period 1978 2008 expansionary LTV shocks increase GDP and business investment but lead

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Of the macroeconomic consequences of LTV policies In their sample an exogenous 10 percentage point tightening of LTV limits

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In a scenario where house prices fall by 10 and high LTV spreads rise by 100 basis points we estimate that an

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We examine valuation bias regulatory loan to value limits and real estate price fluctuations using unique data from

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The reasoning is twofold First a higher LTV ratio increases the probability of negative equity i e property value dips

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The countercyclical LTV policy avoids a large buildup in private debt during the expansion so that when house prices fall the

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In a rising real estate market property values increase which can lead to lower LTV ratios over time However

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Economic Cycles During economic booms asset prices typically rise which can lead to lower LTV ratios if the loan

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Hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders may have to fork out up to 2 000 per year extra due to falling house